VALUED INSIGHTS

Invaluable Valuation Knowledge for the Real Estate Stakeholder

SERIES:
Opportunities And Challenges
In The U.S. Multifamily Market
CHAPTER
  1. Supply And Demand In The Rental Market
    (Published: July 22, 2024)

  2. Understanding Multi-Family Housing Metrics (Available: July 29, 2024)

  3. Key Supply and Demand Indicators for Apartment Investors
    (Available: August 5, 2024)

  4. The Economics of Build-to-Rent Projects
    (Available:August 12, 2024)

  5. Analyzing Regional Apartment Market Trends (Available: August 19, 2024)

  6. Forecasting Demand for Multi-Family Units (Available: August 26, 2024)

  7. The Impact of Economic Cycles on Apartment Markets (Available: September 2, 2024)

  8. Assessing the Supply of Affordable Housing: A Comprehensive Analysis
    (Available: September 9, 2024)

  9. Strategies for Investing in Build-to-Rent Properties  (Available: September 16, 2024)

  10. Demographic Trends Influencing Apartment Demand (Available: September 16, 2024)

  11. The Effect of Interest Rates on Housing Supply and Demand
    (Available: September 30, 2024)

  12. Urban vs. Suburban Rental Market Dynamics: A Shifting Landscape
    (Available: October 7, 2024)

  13. Evaluating Market Saturation for New Developments
    (Available: October 14, 2024)

  14. Technology’s Impact on Multi-Family Housing: Revolutionizing the Rental Landscape
    (Available: October 21, 2024)

  15. Government Policies and Their Impact on Housing Supply
    (Available: October 28, 2024)

SERIES:
Opportunities And Challenges
In The U.S. Multifamily Market
CHAPTER:

Government Policies and Their Impact on Housing Supply

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Author: Jason D. Beakley, Certified General Appraiser
Published: October 28, 2024

The intricate relationship between government policies and housing supply has become a focal point in discussions about affordability and accessibility in the real estate market. As policymakers grapple with the challenges of providing adequate housing for a growing population, the impact of various governmental interventions on housing supply has come under increased scrutiny. This article explores the multifaceted ways in which government policies influence housing supply, examining both intended outcomes and unintended consequences.

The Current State of Housing Supply

Before delving into specific policies, it’s crucial to understand the current state of housing supply in the United States. According to a Congressional Research Service report, several indicators suggest that housing supply at the national level is relatively low:

Jason D. Beakley
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  1. The housing stock (total number of housing units) has remained largely unchanged relative to population between 1980 and 2022.
  2. Vacancy rates across rental and owner-occupied markets have decreased since the 2007-2009 housing market crash and financial crisis, hitting several-decade lows in 2022.
  3. The number of single-family homes available for sale each year has trended downward since 2000, particularly after the 2007-2009 crisis.
  4. New housing units, as measured by total population-controlled housing starts, have trended downwards in recent decades, most notably after the 2007-2009 crisis.

These trends paint a picture of a housing market struggling to keep pace with demand, setting the stage for various government interventions aimed at boosting supply.

Zoning and Land Use Regulations

One of the most significant ways government policies impact housing supply is through zoning and land use regulations. Historically, these policies have often acted as constraints on housing development, particularly in urban areas.

The federal government’s role in zoning has a complex history. As Edward Pinto of the American Enterprise Institute points out, the federal government led a national effort to implement exclusionary zoning and land use policies in 1921, designed to make newly built homes too expensive for certain racial and ethnic groups to afford. The consequences of these policies are still felt today, contributing to housing shortages and affordability issues in many areas.

However, there’s growing recognition that reforming zoning laws could significantly boost housing supply. Some experts, like Jim Parrott, fellow at the Urban Institute and former Obama White House economic adviser, suggest that the federal government could incentivize local governments to change zoning laws. One proposed method is to condition federal funding for communities on how zoning decisions are made, essentially using financial leverage to encourage more housing-friendly policies.

Financial Incentives and Tax Policies

Government policies also impact housing supply through various financial incentives and tax policies. These can either encourage or discourage housing development and investment.

For instance, tax incentives for builders of entry-level homes have been proposed as a way to increase the supply of affordable housing. The idea is to make the economics more favorable for builders constructing homes for first-time buyers at or below the median home price.

Conversely, some existing tax policies may inadvertently constrain supply. Edward Pinto suggests that eliminating tax breaks for second (and third) homes could increase the national housing stock over time by encouraging many homeowners to sell their secondary homes, simultaneously increasing supply and reducing demand.

Federal Land Use

The federal government’s control over vast tracts of land presents another policy lever for influencing housing supply. Some experts, including Edward Pinto, have suggested that the federal government could sell unused land for housing projects. However, this proposal would require Congressional authorization and careful consideration of environmental and other impacts.

Financing and Lending Policies

Government policies around housing finance and lending also play a crucial role in shaping housing supply. The availability and terms of mortgages, influenced by federal policies and regulations, can impact both the demand for housing and developers’ ability to finance new projects.

For example, policies that make it easier to secure loans for manufactured housing could potentially increase the supply of affordable homes. However, as the search results indicate, current federal regulations make it more challenging to secure loans for manufactured homes compared to traditional homes.

The Role of Monetary Policy

While not directly a housing policy, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions have far-reaching implications for housing supply. Interest rates, influenced by Fed policy, affect both the demand for housing and the feasibility of new development projects. The recent period of historically low interest rates, followed by rapid increases to combat inflation, has had significant impacts on the housing market, influencing both supply and demand dynamics.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite the potential for government policies to boost housing supply, there are several challenges and considerations:

  1. Local Control: Many of the most impactful policies, particularly around zoning and land use, are controlled at the local level. This can make it challenging for federal policies to directly influence supply in specific markets.
  2. Unintended Consequences: Policies aimed at increasing supply can sometimes have unintended effects. For example, policies that make it easier to build luxury housing might not address affordability issues for lower-income households.
  3. Market Dynamics: Government policies interact with complex market forces, and their impacts can be difficult to predict or control.
  4. Political Challenges: Housing policies often involve competing interests and can be politically contentious, making significant reforms challenging to implement.

The Path Forward

As the housing affordability crisis continues to impact communities across the country, there’s growing consensus that increasing supply is crucial. Jenny Schuetz, testifying before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, emphasized the need for innovative, pro-housing policies to boost supply and improve affordability.

Schuetz recommended several ways the federal government could encourage such policies:

  1. Organizing convenings between state and local policymakers and other stakeholders to share experiences on pro-housing policies.
  2. Publishing guidelines for local and state policymakers on how to design pro-housing policies.
  3. Creating financial incentives for local and state governments to integrate investments in housing, land use, transportation, and other infrastructure.

 

Conclusion

Government policies have a profound and multifaceted impact on housing supply. From zoning laws and tax incentives to monetary policy and federal land use, the levers available to policymakers are diverse and powerful. However, effectively using these tools to increase housing supply while addressing affordability and equity concerns requires careful consideration, innovative thinking, and often, a willingness to challenge established practices.

As we move forward, the key to addressing housing supply issues likely lies in a combination of federal, state, and local policies that work in concert to remove barriers to development, incentivize the construction of affordable housing, and create more flexible, responsive housing markets. By carefully crafting and implementing such policies, governments at all levels can play a crucial role in ensuring adequate housing supply for future generations.

Citations:

[1] https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47617

[2] https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w20536/w20536.pdf

[3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-government-home-costs/

[4] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-federal-government-can-encourage-innovative-housing-policies-that-improve-supply-and-affordability/

[5] https://www.tenantcloud.com/blog/2023-real-estate-trends-urban-suburban-shifts-and-the-rise-of-single-family-living

[6] https://www.aei.org/research-products/testimony/government-policies-are-responsible-for-the-american-housing-crisis-that-is-crowding-lower-income-households-out-of-the-housing-market/

[7] https://multifamily.fanniemae.com/news-insights/multifamily-market-commentary/multifamily-urban-and-suburban-submarket-performance

[8] https://butterflymx.com/blog/how-technology-improves-resident-safety-multifamily/