VALUED INSIGHTS

Invaluable Valuation Knowledge for the Real Estate Stakeholder

SERIES:
Beyond Borders: A Global Perspective of International Real Estate Valuation
CHAPTER
  1. Navigating Cultural Differences in International Valuation Practices
    (Published: June 27, 2024)

  2. Comparing Valuation Standards Across Different Countries
    (Available: July 16, 2024)

  3. The Impact of Global Economic Trends on Property Valuations
    (Available: July 23, 2024)

  4. Legal and Regulatory Challenges in International Property Appraisals
    (Available: July 30, 2024)

  5. Best Practices for Cross-Border Collaboration in Valuation Advisory
    (Available: August 6, 2024)

  6. Adapting Valuation Approaches to Diverse International Markets
    (Available: August 13, 2024)

  7. Understanding the Influence of Political Stability on Property Values
    (Available: August 20, 2024)

  8. Valuation Challenges in Emerging Markets: Lessons Learned
    (Available: August 27, 2024)

  9. Applying International Valuation Standards (IVS) in Practice
    (Available: September 3, 2024)
  10. The Interplay Between Currency Exchange Rates and Property Valuations
    (Available: September 10, 2024)

  11. Commercial Property Valuation in Developed vs. Developing Nations
    (Available: September 17, 2024)

  12. Assessing the Impact of Global Events on Property Values (Available: September 24, 2024)
SERIES:
Beyond Borders: A Global Perspective of
International Real Estate Valuation
CHAPTER:

Assessing the Impact of Global Events on Property Values 

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Author: Bruce D. Greenberg, FRICS | MAI | SRA | ASA | ARM
Published: September 24, 2024

The real estate market is intrinsically linked to global events, which can have far-reaching implications for property values across different regions and asset classes. From economic crises and geopolitical tensions to pandemics and climate change, these events can profoundly influence market dynamics, investor sentiment, and the underlying factors that drive property valuations. 

Economic Downturns and Financial Crises 

Economic downturns and financial crises can significantly impact property values, often leading to a decrease in demand, reduced investment flows, and tighter lending conditions. During the 2008 global financial crisis, for example, property values in many markets experienced substantial declines due to reduced consumer spending power, increased uncertainty, and restricted access to financing[1]. 

Bruce D. Grennberg
FRICS | MAI | SRA | ASA | ARM
Managin Director | Principal
+1-480-440-2842 EXT 01

Factors such as interest rate fluctuations, employment rates, and currency fluctuations can also play a role in shaping property values during economic crises. A strong or weak currency can influence the affordability of properties for foreign investors, potentially driving demand and prices up or down[1]. 

Geopolitical Tensions and Conflicts 

Geopolitical tensions and conflicts can create an environment of uncertainty and risk aversion, deterring investment and potentially leading to capital flight from affected regions. This can result in reduced demand for properties, lower occupancy rates, and a decline in property values, particularly in areas directly impacted by the unrest[2]. 

Additionally, geopolitical events can disrupt global supply chains and trade flows, indirectly affecting property values in markets reliant on international commerce and logistics operations. 

Pandemics and Public Health Crises 

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the profound impact that public health crises can have on property values. Lockdown measures and changes in working patterns led to a surge in demand for residential properties with more space and amenities, while commercial properties, particularly in urban areas, experienced a decline in value due to reduced occupancy and shifting tenant preferences[1]. 

Pandemics can also accelerate existing trends, such as the rise of e-commerce and the adoption of remote work, further reshaping the demand for various property types and influencing their valuations. 

Climate Change and Environmental Factors 

Climate change and environmental factors are increasingly influencing property values, as investors and occupants prioritize sustainability and resilience. Properties located in areas prone to extreme weather events, such as coastal regions susceptible to flooding or regions affected by wildfires, may experience a decline in value due to increased risk and insurance costs[3]. 

Conversely, properties with green building certifications, energy-efficient systems, and sustainable features may command higher valuations, reflecting their potential for lower operating costs and alignment with environmental regulations and consumer preferences. 

Assessing and Mitigating the Impact 

To accurately assess the impact of global events on property values, valuation professionals must employ a range of strategies: 

  1. Scenario Analysis: Incorporate scenario-based analyses into valuation methodologies to evaluate the potential impact of various global events on property values under different circumstances.
  1. Risk Assessment: Conduct comprehensive risk assessments to identify and quantify the exposure of properties to specific global events, such as climate change risks or geopolitical instability.
  1. Data Analytics: Leverage data analytics and modeling techniques to analyze historical data and identify patterns and correlations between global events and property value fluctuations.
  1. Collaboration and Expert Insights: Engage with economists, industry experts, and local market professionals to gain insights into the potential implications of global events on specific markets and property types.
  1. Continuous Monitoring: Continuously monitor global events, economic indicators, and market trends to proactively adapt valuation approaches and assumptions as circumstances evolve.

     

By adopting these strategies, valuation professionals can deliver more accurate and reliable valuations that account for the impact of global events, enabling informed decision-making and risk management for investors, lenders, and other stakeholders in the real estate industry. 

Citations: 

[1] https://www.farrellheyworth.co.uk/blog/global-events-and-their-effect-on-the-uk-housing-market/ 

[2] https://www.nbim.no/contentassets/c199863ae8374916ac15e780662db960/nbim_discussionnotes_2-15.pdf 

[3] https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/esg-and-real-estate-the-top-10-things-investors-need-to-know 

[4] https://lowerypa.com/2023/11/28/understanding-the-impact-of-current-economic-trends-on-commercial-property-valuations/ 

[5] https://www.zurich.com/en/knowledge/topics/climate-change/how-climate-change-will-impact-business-everywhere