VALUED INSIGHTS

Invaluable Valuation Knowledge for the Real Estate Stakeholder

SERIES:
Opportunities And Challenges
In The U.S. Multifamily Market
CHAPTER
  1. Supply And Demand In The Rental Market
    (Published: July 22, 2024)

  2. Understanding Multi-Family Housing Metrics (Available: July 29, 2024)

  3. Key Supply and Demand Indicators for Apartment Investors
    (Available: August 5, 2024)

  4. The Economics of Build-to-Rent Projects
    (Available:August 12, 2024)

  5. Analyzing Regional Apartment Market Trends (Available: August 19, 2024)

  6. Forecasting Demand for Multi-Family Units (Available: August 26, 2024)

  7. The Impact of Economic Cycles on Apartment Markets (Available: September 2, 2024)

  8. Assessing the Supply of Affordable Housing: A Comprehensive Analysis
    (Available: September 9, 2024)

  9. Strategies for Investing in Build-to-Rent Properties  (Available: September 16, 2024)

  10. Demographic Trends Influencing Apartment Demand (Available: September 16, 2024)
SERIES:
Opportunities And Challenges
In The U.S. Multifamily Market
CHAPTER:

Demographic Trends Influencing Apartment Demand

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Author: Jason D. Beakley, Certified General Appraiser
Published: September 23, 2024

In the ever-evolving landscape of real estate investment, few sectors are as closely tied to demographic shifts as the multifamily housing market. As apartment investors and developers, understanding the intricate web of population trends, generational preferences, and societal changes is not just beneficial—it’s essential for long-term success. These demographic trends shape not only the quantity of apartment demand but also the quality and characteristics of the units that will be most sought after in the coming years.

The Millennial Influence: Delayed but Not Denied

At the forefront of demographic trends influencing apartment demand is the continued impact of the millennial generation. Born between 1981 and 1996, millennials have been a driving force in the rental market for over a decade. However, their influence is far from waning.

Jason D. Beakley
CERTIFIED GENERAL APPRAISER
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In fact, as this generation enters new life stages, their housing needs and preferences continue to evolve, creating both challenges and opportunities for the apartment sector. 

One of the most significant trends among millennials has been the delay of traditional life milestones. The median age for first marriage in the United States has reached historic highs—30.4 for men and 28.6 for women in 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This delay in marriage often correlates with a delay in homeownership, extending the period during which millennials remain in the rental market. 

Moreover, the financial realities faced by many millennials have prolonged their tenure as renters. Student loan debt, which stands at an average of $37,574 per borrower according to the Federal Reserve, has made it challenging for many to save for a down payment on a home. The result? A generation that is renting longer and seeking high-quality, amenity-rich apartments that can serve as long-term homes rather than temporary living situations. 

For apartment investors, this trend underscores the importance of developing and maintaining properties that cater to a more mature renter demographic. Units with home-like features, such as in-unit laundry, spacious kitchens, and dedicated work-from-home spaces, are increasingly in demand. Community amenities that foster a sense of belonging and support a balanced lifestyle, like co-working spaces, fitness centers, and social gathering areas, have become essential rather than optional. 

The Rise of Gen Z: A New Wave of Renters 

As millennials gradually transition into homeownership, albeit at a slower pace than previous generations, the apartment market is already feeling the influence of the next demographic wave: Generation Z. Born between 1997 and 2012, the oldest members of Gen Z are now in their mid-20s and entering the rental market in force. 

This generation, shaped by technology, economic uncertainty, and a global pandemic, brings its own set of preferences and expectations to the housing market. Early indicators suggest that Gen Z may be even more inclined towards renting than their millennial predecessors. A survey by Apartment List found that 74% of Gen Z renters plan to rent for the next five years or more, compared to 69% of millennials at the same age. 

Gen Z’s preference for urban living and experiences over possessions is likely to drive demand for apartments in vibrant, walkable neighborhoods. However, affordability remains a key concern for this generation, many of whom entered the job market during economic turbulence. This creates an opportunity for investors to focus on developing and acquiring properties in emerging neighborhoods that offer a balance of affordability and urban amenities. 

Technology integration is non-negotiable for Gen Z renters. Smart home features, high-speed internet, and seamless digital experiences for everything from lease signing to maintenance requests are expected. Apartment communities that can offer these technological amenities will have a significant competitive advantage in attracting and retaining Gen Z tenants. 

The Graying of America: Senior Housing Demand 

While much attention is paid to younger generations, one of the most significant demographic trends influencing apartment demand is the aging of the American population. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that by 2030, all baby boomers will be older than 65, expanding the size of the older population so that one in every five Americans is projected to be retirement age. 

This “graying of America” has profound implications for the apartment market. Contrary to the traditional notion that seniors universally prefer to age in place in their own homes, a growing number are opting for rental housing. The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University reported that between 2008 and 2018, the number of renter households headed by someone 60 or older increased by 43%. 

Several factors are driving this trend: 

  • Desire for maintenance-free living
  • Need for accessibility features as mobility decreases
  • Interest in downsizing to reduce expenses
  • Preference for community and social interaction

For apartment investors, this demographic shift presents an opportunity to develop and reposition properties to cater to older renters. Features such as elevators, wide doorways, and grab bars in bathrooms can make units more attractive to seniors. Community spaces that foster social interaction and organized activities can be strong selling points.

Moreover, the location of senior-oriented apartments is crucial. Proximity to healthcare facilities, public transportation, and amenities like grocery stores and pharmacies can make a property particularly appealing to older renters. Suburban locations near these conveniences are likely to see increased demand as urban-dwelling baby boomers seek quieter environments without sacrificing access to services. 

Household Composition: The Rise of Single-Person Households 

Another demographic trend reshaping apartment demand is the increasing prevalence of single-person households. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, single-person households now account for 28% of all households, up from 13% in 1960. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including delayed marriage, increased divorce rates among older adults, and longer life expectancies. 

For the apartment market, the rise of single-person households has several implications: 

  1. Increased demand for smaller units: Studio and one-bedroom apartments are likely to see strong demand, particularly in urban areas.
  1. Emphasis on community spaces: With more people living alone, there’s a greater desire for communal areas within apartment complexes that facilitate social interaction.
  1. Focus on security features: Single dwellers often prioritize safety, making secure access systems and well-lit common areas important selling points.
  1. Pet-friendly policies: Many single-person households include pets, making pet amenities like dog parks and grooming stations increasingly popular.

Investors and developers who can cater to the needs and preferences of single-person households are likely to see strong demand for their properties. This might involve reconfiguring existing properties to include more studio and one-bedroom units or developing new properties with a mix of unit sizes and ample community spaces. 

Immigration and Diversity: Shaping Regional Demand 

Immigration has long been a significant factor in U.S. population growth and, by extension, housing demand. While immigration rates have fluctuated in recent years due to policy changes and global events, the long-term trend of the United States as a destination for international migrants continues to influence apartment demand, particularly in gateway cities and emerging immigrant destinations. 

According to the Pew Research Center, immigrants and their U.S.-born children will account for 88% of U.S. population growth through 2065. This demographic trend has several implications for the apartment market: 

  • Increased demand in specific regions: Cities and regions that attract large numbers of immigrants are likely to see stronger apartment demand.
  • Diverse housing needs: Immigrant households often have different housing preferences, such as larger units to accommodate multigenerational living or proximity to cultural amenities.
  • Affordability concerns: Many recent immigrants prioritize affordability, creating demand for workforce housing in areas with job opportunities.

For apartment investors, understanding the immigration patterns and cultural preferences of different immigrant groups can inform investment decisions and property designs. Properties that can accommodate larger family sizes or offer culturally specific amenities may have a competitive advantage in areas with significant immigrant populations. 

The Remote Work Revolution: Redefining “Location, Location, Location” 

While not strictly a demographic trend, the shift towards remote work accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on where people choose to live, directly influencing apartment demand. This trend intersects with demographics as different age groups and household types respond to the flexibility of remote work in varying ways. 

For millennials and Gen Z, the ability to work remotely has opened up new possibilities for where to live. Many are choosing to move away from high-cost urban centers to more affordable secondary and tertiary markets, a trend often referred to as “Zoom towns.” This shift is creating new hotspots of apartment demand in previously overlooked areas. 

For apartment investors, this trend underscores the importance of: 

  • High-speed internet infrastructure
  • Dedicated work-from-home spaces within units
  • Co-working areas within apartment communities
  • Outdoor spaces that provide a respite from indoor work environments

Moreover, the remote work trend is influencing unit design preferences. Open floor plans that seemed ideal for urban professionals are giving way to layouts that offer more defined spaces, allowing for separation between work and living areas. 

Conclusion: Adapting to a Changing Demographic Landscape 

The demographic trends influencing apartment demand are complex and multifaceted. From the continued influence of millennials and the emergence of Gen Z to the growing senior population and the rise of single-person households, each trend presents both challenges and opportunities for apartment investors and developers. 

Success in this evolving landscape requires a nuanced understanding of these demographic shifts and the ability to adapt investment strategies accordingly. Properties that can cater to the changing needs and preferences of diverse demographic groups—offering flexibility, community, technology integration, and affordability—are likely to see strong demand in the coming years. 

As we look to the future, it’s clear that the apartment market will continue to be shaped by these demographic forces. Investors who stay attuned to these trends, remain flexible in their approaches, and are willing to innovate in response to changing demand will be best positioned to thrive in this dynamic sector of the real estate market. 

Citations: 

[1] https://jakeandgino.com/key-demographic-trends-apartment-investors-must-consider-for-long-term-success/ 

[2] https://www.naahq.org/future-apartment-demand 

[3] https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/rent-house-prices-and-demographics 

[4] https://www.excelsiorgp.com/resources/how-changing-demographics-impact-the-real-estate-market/ 

[5] https://blog.firstam.com/economics/when-boomers-and-millennials-collide-tectonic-shifts-in-demographics-are-coming 

[6] https://conticapital.com/news/multifamily-stable-demand-growth/ 

[7] https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/what-are-the-2023-prospects-for-us-housing-demand/ 

[8] http://www.montgomeryplanningboard.org/agenda/2008/documents/20080703_appendix4_gap_
analysis_print.pdf